Media Update: New CTV from The Trade Desk, TikTok Continues Fighting, New Google Search Data Arises
Key Highlights:
- TV & Audio: The Trade Desk announced a new CTV OS, Ventura, which is set to compete directly with Roku.
- Paid Social: The US Court of Appeal upholds the January 19th sell-or-ban deadline for TikTok, but TikTok plans to continue fighting.
- Display & Programmatic: YouTube is the top destination for podcasting.
- Search: New study reveals 15% of Google searches are driven by just 148 terms, highlighting the relatively low proportion of commercial intent and the need for AI-powered ad strategies to capture scarce transactional demand.
- Ad Economy: Navigating AppLovin’s Complex Landscape, and DOJ vs. Google [2020] Enters Year Five.
- Consumer Economy: American shoppers upped their outlays by ~3.5% over Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while consumer sentiment hit an eight-month high.
TV & Audio
Sports and broadcast ratings saw a boost in the final week of November, bolstered by strong audiences for Thanksgiving NFL coverage. While the year has seen its spikes and dips – strong broadcast figures around the Olympics and surprisingly weak audiences in the run-up to the election – linear’s main theme of 2024 is decline, with entertainment audiences consistently down 15-20% year-over-year, evidence of ongoing cord-cutting.
1. While this newsletter took a brief sabbatical for Thanksgiving, the major players in the TV world took no such break. Just before the holiday, the Trade Desk (TTD) announced that it is building a new CTV operating system – Ventura. Named for TTD’s California headquarters, the new OS promises “a more intuitive, engaging user experience… a much cleaner supply chain for streaming TV advertising… [and] advances such as OpenPath and Unified ID 2.0.” The announcement was met with initial praise from some big names, with positive commentary coming from partners at Disney, Paramount, Tubi, and Sonos.
This development could represent a major shift in the CTV landscape. CTV operating systems are a backbone of the advertising ecosystem, as they help connect major publishers to viewers through their TVs. Currently, there are two major groups of operating systems: those exclusive to OEMs (such as Samsung’s Tizen, Vizio’s SmartCast, and LG’s WebOS) and those that can be licensed (such as Roku, Android TV, and Amazon Fire OS). Samsung and Roku have the deepest penetration in the US, each accessing ~50% of households.
Because TTD has stated it has “no intention of getting into the hardware business,” the launch of Ventura clearly positions the company against the licensable OS providers, especially Roku, whose stock took a beating the day of the announcement. That makes for an interesting tension, as TTD and Roku just this year announced a partnership to make Roku media and audience data available through the Trade Desk. As recently as September, TTD CEO Jeff Green insisted that his company did not want to compete with Roku, though the Ventura announcement somewhat obviously positions them to. Nonetheless, we should not get ahead of ourselves in analyzing the impact of this announcement on CTV; critically, more than half of US TVs are Samsungs or LGs, meaning they already come with a powerful CTV OS. Those OEMs are unlikely to adopt Ventura, meaning TTD will need to find alternative partners to leverage its OS. It’s possible those partners could be the Chinese manufacturers, though they represent a small percentage of US TVs. Alternatively, there could be a path with Vizio, whose acquisition by Walmart finally closed. Walmart has already demonstrated interest in UID2, and such a partnership could bolster Walmart’s position at the intersection of CTV and retail media (though we should not look past Vizio already having its own OS).
Overall, the launch of Ventura is a major development in the CTV landscape, but one whose impacts may take time to manifest after deeper negotiations with the OEMs. Trade Desk has already acknowledged other potential opportunities for Ventura, including hotels and airlines, so with some time, Ventura could truly have a broad impact across CTV and DOOH. That said, with lots of details still to be hashed out, advertisers do not yet need to adjust their investment allocations over to Trade Desk or away from Roku. Advertisers should feel reassured, however, that Tinuiti has long partnerships with both Trade Desk and Roku and has explicitly arranged to incorporate UID2 into our data spine, leaving us well prepared for any developments that arise from this announcement. | The Trade Desk, Variety, VisualCapitalist
2. The linear TV landscape has seen developments of its own, albeit ones that don’t generate as much positivity. In October, we noted that DirecTV and Dish were set to merge, potentially giving the two large satellite players a lifeline. Unfortunately for them, the Dish-DirecTV merger has since fallen apart, after Dish’s bond holders rejected a key debt exchange provision. EchoStar (the owner of Dish) claimed that Dish has room to grow on its own, but it is hard to view this development as anything other than a major setback. A key argument for the merger was the combined entity’s ability to negotiate favorable pricing for TV programming (recall that such “carriage fees” were at the heart of the DirecTV-Disney impasse earlier this year), and now both providers will have less leverage as they negotiate independently. As we said in October, this deal would not have changed the tough reality for linear, and neither will its abandonment. Overall, we can continue to expect steep declines in linear viewership as audiences become increasingly incentivized to switch to digital channels. | AdAge, WSJ
Paid Social
The big news this week is that on Dec 6th, the US Court of Appeals upheld the law that could lead to a ban of TikTok if the platform does not sever ties with its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The deadline for the sale or ban of TikTok is January 19th, 2025.
On the 9th, TikTok filed an injunction with the Supreme Court to postpone the deadline until the new administration takes over following President-elect Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. While TikTok is making efforts to overturn, or at least postpone, the ban, there are significant unknown variables here, even with the deadline falling just under 6 weeks from now. The good news for users and advertisers is that even if the ban is enacted, it doesn’t mean TikTok is disappearing.
The app will NOT disappear on January 19th, rather no new downloads or software updates will be allowed. For this reason, advertisers should expect contingency plans to be most useful beyond January, even as late as April. TikTok will also continue to operate in a business-as-usual manner outside of the United States, so advertisers who invest in TikTok inventory in Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc. should plan to continue their strategies as expected. For US advertisers, this is a moment of reflection and media contingency planning, and while it can feel like a scary prospect, there are so many unknown variables that the app could continue as normal just as easily as it could be banned on January 19th. There will be more developments over the coming weeks, so the best course of action is to operate normally and prepare contingency plans for February 2025, just as you would if your brand was managing a budget cut and needed to maximize returns out of other channels. | BBC, AP News
Display & Programmatic
The growing podcast industry is no longer just an audio experience—it’s becoming a visual one too, and YouTube is at the center of the evolution. As podcast popularity continues to rise, the demand for visual content is reshaping the medium. A study by Morning Consult revealed that 42% of US adults prefer watching video podcasts over exclusively listening to podcasts.
While platforms like Spotify have started to focus on video podcasting, YouTube has been leveraging its video prominence to capture the demand. A recent eMarketer study revealed that 53% of podcast audiences are now watching on YouTube. The popularity of video podcasting on YouTube isn’t surprising – its dominance in the video space, strong community features, and powerful recommendation engine make it ideal for attracting viewers and driving discovery of new podcasts with 32% of weekly listeners finding new shows on YouTube.
Podcasters have also leapt on this trend. Many top creators have a significant presence on YouTube, posting not only podcast content but also supplemental video content on their channels to engage their millions of subscribers.
This trend is becoming increasingly important for podcast advertisers, illustrating the importance of adding a strong mix of audio and video to drive deeper and more memorable brand experiences.
It also highlights a significant opportunity for advertisers to expand beyond traditional platforms and tap into YouTube’s vast ecosystem, targeting specific podcasts across YouTube, YouTube Shorts, and related user-generated content, amplifying reach. While YouTube’s measurement may lack the transparency of other podcast platforms, tools like brand lift, search lift, conversion lift, and Google’s attribution provide valuable insights to gauge impact effectively. | Marketing Charts, eMarketer, eMarketer
Search
A new report from SparkToro found that 15% of total Google searches are driven by only 148 terms, most of which are navigational (ie: intent of finding a specific website or web page). Some of the highest volume queries include searches for “YouTube”, “Gmail”, and “Amazon”. The study found that 44% of Google searches are for branded terms (the rest generic), and overall intent behind search queries skews toward “informational” and “navigational”, with less “commercial” and very little purely “transactional” intent.
“People are gravitating to a smaller number of less diverse destinations and ideas,” says Rand Fishkin of SparkToro.
Since such a small pool of searches are purely transactional in nature, marketers are going to be increasingly reliant on leveraging AI technologies in search ads that provide additional intent-based signals. Targeting tactics like Broad Match keywords have access to countless signals beyond the search query itself, and should be supercharged by being paired with conversion-based bidding in order to steer the algorithm to only bid if it forecasts propensity to convert. In theory, this means these AI-powered ad solutions can find purchase intent even if the searcher is not necessarily typing queries that “sound” like they’ll convert.
These findings are a good reminder that search demand must be created through awareness and consideration tactics like TV, display and social media, in order to later be captured and converted in the lower funnel via search. | Search Engine Land
Ad Economy
1. Last month, we highlighted the remarkable ascent of AppLovin within the mobile advertising space. With increasing interest from both advertisers and Wall Street, the platform shows strong potential for growth in 2025 as advertisers allocate larger budgets. However, before advertisers commit too heavily to AppLovin, it is critical to weigh its touted performance benefits against the platform’s transparency challenges and brand safety risks.
A major issue lies in AppLovin’s approach to brand safety. The platform allows ads to appear on any app within its network that meets App Store approval, yet it offers advertisers no visibility into the specific apps where their ads are shown. This lack of transparency, coupled with its AI-driven focus on “performance-based” placements, raises significant concerns, especially for larger brands aiming to avoid contentious associations. While App Store approvals mitigate the most overt brand safety risks seen in the open web, many apps (particularly games) feature political or adult themes that fall into a gray area, potentially creating challenges for advertisers as they seek to balance brand safety risks with performance.
Moreover, AppLovin’s optimization model prioritizes click-through rates, neglecting the importance of view-through data crucial for a comprehensive assessment of campaign performance. Until recently, the platform also lacked geo-specific exclusion capabilities, which are essential for measuring incremental lift. While these capabilities have been introduced, early studies from Haus suggest that while incremental performance improvements exist, new-to-file transaction incrementality (a key metric for many advertisers) may be significantly lower than broader incrementality metrics suggest, perhaps allowing for AppLovin’s performance to be more closely correlated with Remarketing tactics.
Adding to these concerns is skepticism about AppLovin’s differentiation in a crowded market. This uncertainty is mirrored in its stock performance, with the platform’s exclusion from the S&P 500 signaling waning investor confidence. As AppLovin continues to evolve, advertisers and investors are left questioning whether its performance promises outweigh its limitations in transparency and usability. | Twitter, The Street
2. As the United States vs. Google LLC (2020) case approaches its fifth year, the U.S. Department of Justice has proposed bold remedies to address Google’s alleged search engine monopoly. Key recommendations include requiring Google to divest its Chrome browser, banning exclusive agreements like its deal with Apple to be the default search engine in Safari, and mandating the sharing of search data with competitors. These measures aim to level the playing field, particularly in online search and advertising, by reducing Google’s dominance and fostering competition. The DOJ also seeks to prevent Google from preferentially placing its search engine on Android devices, signaling a significant shift in the tech giant’s operational freedoms.
Google has pushed back strongly, characterizing the DOJ’s proposals as “radical and sweeping” with potential to harm consumers, developers, and small businesses. The company argues that its services are chosen for their quality, not coercion, and warns that the proposed measures could stifle innovation and disrupt the seamless user experience it has cultivated. With stakes this high, the outcome of the case could set a precedent for how tech monopolies are regulated, balancing antitrust enforcement with maintaining the competitive edge of American technology.
The potential forced sale of a Google asset, such as Chrome or its search business, raises speculation about potential buyers. While FAANG companies are unlikely candidates due to antitrust concerns, The Trade Desk emerges as a plausible contender. With its focus on programmatic advertising and innovations like Unified ID 2.0, OpenPass, and a recently launched TV operating system, acquiring a Google asset could provide The Trade Desk with the scale it needs to compete more aggressively. However, such a consolidation would likely face regulatory scrutiny to ensure it diversifies the market rather than transferring monopolistic power, making the implications for competition, advertisers, and consumers significant. | DOJ, The Verge, Google
Consumer Economy
1. We’ve frequently noted in these pages that the American consumer has remained in pretty rude health despite the economic gyrations (pandemic, inflation) of the past four years. That basic picture remained unchanged over the Thanksgiving holiday, when American shoppers upped their Black-Friday-through-Cyber-Monday spending by 3.5% over last year. This overall growth in spending reflected more dramatic dynamics in how people did their shopping – in-store sales rose by just 0.7%, while online sales rose by almost 15%.
Some have theorized that consumers are spending more now in anticipation of new tariffs promised by the incoming Trump administration. If enacted, such tariffs would raise consumer prices, creating an incentive to buy early; this may be one reason why overall holiday sales are projected to grow by 3.5% this year.
A notable trend this year was the record utilization of buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing. Shoppers spent just under $1 billion this way, a 5.5% increase over 2023. | NYT, eMarketer, Adobe
2. Right in line with these healthy BFCM shopping figures, the latest reading of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since April, even though consumers are expecting higher prices over the coming year (per the piece above, this may be due to promises of new import tariffs).
We told you last time that political partisans hot-swapped their views of the economy in the wake of the election; Democrats’ sentiment plunged, while Republicans’ soared. That dynamic is borne out in this more recent data, which shows sentiment among Republicans now stands at a four-year high, while confidence among Democrats has dropped to a more than two-year low. Among political independents, sentiment rose to an eight-month high.
Consumers’ outlook for their personal finances fell to a five-month low in December, possibly indicating rising indebtedness associated with holiday shopping. | Bloomberg, WSJ
3. The health of the American consumer, as discussed above, is tightly linked with the health of the American labor market. And as the former prospers, it should be no surprise that the latter is looking healthy as well – November’s jobs report showed a strong rebound in hiring, with 227k jobs added, following October numbers that were depressed by major storms and labor strikes.
Despite the strong monthly figures, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, above the level it’s been at since the beginning of 2022.
The big question now is how this will all factor into the Fed’s interest rate decisions next week. With the Fed now in a rate-lowering cycle, there are two data points that may push in the other direction: the aforementioned robust job growth, which suggests the labor market is not depressed in any way; and the fact that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure remained elevated in October. Lowering rates could run the risk of re-accelerating inflation, which is the last thing the Fed would want to see. The market-implied probability of a 25-basis point cut stands at about 72%. | WSJ, NYT, Bloomberg
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