Media Update: Disney-Fubo Agreement, YouTube Pilot Feature, Holiday Shopping Increases
Key Highlights
- TV & Audio: We predicted consolidation for 2025, and it’s already kicked off with a Disney-Fubo agreement and a new unified ad buying tool from Comcast.
- Paid Social: Meta announces changes to its content moderation practices, and TikTok prepares for its Supreme Court hearing this Friday.
- Display & Programmatic: YouTube is piloting a feature, Watch With, allowing viewers to watch commentary and analysis of live games and events from select creators.
- Search: Google outlined its proposed remedies in the DOJ monopoly case, focusing on flexibility, choice and safeguards.
- Consumer Economy: Holiday shopping outlays increased by almost 4% YoY, underpinned by strong GDP growth and significant progress on the inflation front.
TV & Audio
Linear sports viewership started strong in 2025 with impressive numbers for the first-ever College Football Playoff quarterfinals, which averaged ~17M viewers per game over the New Year’s holiday. Despite the upcoming presidential inauguration, news viewership has been relatively modest in recent weeks, while entertainment – the largest bucket by total audience – remains consistently down year-over-year.
1. If you were a regular reader of this forum in 2024, you likely recall that one of the major predictions we had for the future was streaming consolidation. Less than a week into 2025, we’ve seen two major developments that confirm this trend.
On Monday, Disney announced it would merge its Hulu + Live streaming offering with competitor Fubo, with Fubo dropping its lawsuit against Venu, the proposed sports streaming JV from Fox, Warner Bros Discovery, and Disney-owned ESPN. Terms of the agreement were complex, with Disney taking 70% ownership of Fubo, offering a $145M loan, and participating in a $220M cash payment with Fox and WBD to end the lawsuit. After Fubo had won an injunction against the JV last summer, the fate of Venu had been up in the air until this agreement was announced (just moments before oral argument was set to begin in a federal appeals court).
However, just days later, Disney, WBD, and Fox decided not to move forward with Venu at all. Instead, the companies will “[focus] on existing products and distribution channels.” The announcement came as a surprise, not only because of the resolution of the legal dispute, but also because viewer appeal was expected to be significant, with Venu slated to offer NFL, MLB, NHL, and NCAA athletics coverage at prices meaningfully below traditional cable or YouTube TV. While the aggressive consolidation Venu promised will have to wait, the Fubo / Hulu + Live combination will still be formidable. It will have ample opportunity for success, as live sports viewership on digital pay TV is projected to grow rapidly over the next few years.
In addition to consolidation for viewers, Monday also saw an announcement of consolidation for advertisers. FreeWheel – Comcast’s ad management platform – announced the launch of a self-serve ad-buying platform called Universal Ads. The new platform, which will enter alpha testing before a broader roll-out in H2, is geared towards small to mid-sized advertisers with a goal of simplifying CTV ad buying. Universal Ads has an impressive array of launch partners, including A+E, AMC, DirecTV, WBD, NBCU, Fox, Paramount, and Roku. Importantly, Disney, Netflix, and Amazon (owners of the four most-watched non-YouTube streaming platforms) are not part of the new offering.
For advertisers, these developments are further evidence that 2025 will be the year of consolidation. More SMBs competing for CTV inventory could lead to increased CPMs in the open market, especially after an extended period of competition pushed those rates down. Meanwhile, greater partnership between the publishers – not to mention JVs like Venu or outright combinations like Hulu + Live and Fubo – could have a similar effect as publishers may coordinate their offerings. Tinuiti has recognized these pressures, and fortunately for our clients, we access most of our CTV inventory through prenegotiated deal terms with our publisher partners that leverage our size and industry gravity, ensuring that we consistently access market-beating CPMs. With that said, advertisers should pay close attention to developments in this space over the course of 2025, as further consolidation should be expected. | Business Wire, eMarketer
2. The context for streaming consolidation is, of course, the long decline of linear. While streaming networks grow and grow, the number of highly penetrated cable networks continues to shrink. In 2021, almost half of cable networks reached a majority of US households; today, only about a quarter of networks can do so. Traditional cable now only has a 39% national distribution, leading one media buyer to remark: “That’s not national anymore, that’s local.” Those viewers have shifted over to streaming, leading to explosive growth for many different platforms.
While the obvious conclusion advertisers should draw is to invest in CTV in 2025, brands should be careful not to write off linear TV entirely. Though the reach of individual linear networks has declined, it is still very possible – and even efficient – to reach massive audiences on linear networks through a more diversified investment. Said one buyer to AdAge, “We can get the same reach through the TV set this year that we did last year, and the year before. But if we think we’re getting the same reach by doing the same buy every year, that’s where we’re mistaken.” Rather than investing heavily in linear upfronts on a handful of networks or programming, advertisers should stay dynamic with their linear dollars and access a variety of inventory types: national-locals, rated and unrated networks, diverse dayparts, and more. A broad campaign that accesses many smaller pools of viewers rather than a few large ones can result in high reach at the right price, meaning linear can remain a powerful channel for advertisers even amid its secular decline with audiences. | AdAge, eMarketer
Paid Social
1. This week, Meta unveiled a transformative shift in content moderation across its platforms. The new “Community Notes” system, set to replace Meta’s third-party fact-checking in the U.S. by the end of Q2 2025, hands moderation responsibilities to users, fostering a more transparent and community-driven approach. In tandem, Meta has relaxed restrictions on sensitive topics, narrowing its enforcement focus to illegal and high-severity content violations. These moves align with Meta’s goal to enhance user empowerment and mirror strategies seen on competitor platforms like X.
For advertisers, the implications could be significant. On one hand, with reduced content restrictions, campaigns may face fewer hurdles during approval processes, enabling more creative flexibility. Personalized user feeds also unlock new opportunities for precise targeting. However, user-driven moderation introduces unpredictability, with ads potentially flagged as misleading or controversial by the community. Coupled with relaxed content guidelines, this could heighten brand safety concerns, particularly in markets where enforcement varies.
Advertisers should view these changes with cautious optimism. While the potential for improved ad performance is encouraging and users will be able to curate their feeds, advertisers should remain vigilant in community management. Lean into Meta’s brand safety tools, leverage tailored block lists, and maintain a feedback loop with your Meta team to navigate this transition effectively. As always, staying proactive and adaptable will be key to maximizing these opportunities while mitigating risks. | NBC, Meta, PPC Land
2. On Friday, January 10th, the U.S. Supreme Court is hearing a landmark case on the potential nationwide ban of TikTok, currently slated for January 19th, 2025. The hearing comes following December’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals that the law would be upheld, requiring ByteDance to divest its interest in TikTok or risk the app getting banned. The Supreme Court has affirmed that it plans to issue a decision prior to the current January 19th deadline. The outcome could reshape digital platform regulation in the U.S. and has sparked significant public interest, with polls showing mixed support for a ban.
As discussed in last month’s newsletter, TikTok’s uncertain future is a call to diversify strategies. Although the app will not fully disappear on January 19th if the ban is upheld, advertisers will be best equipped if they have contingency plans on standby and can pivot if performance begins to decline. President-elect Trump has also tried to make a plea to delay the deadline until he is in office, but the request was denied, creating further speculation about what the future of the app could look like under the incoming administration. Brands should monitor developments closely, and remain flexible in adapting their media plans to this rapidly evolving landscape. | Forbes, USA Today, YouGov
Display & Programmatic
Last year, we talked a lot about YouTube, and for good reason. It had a standout 2024: it became the top platform for podcasts, surpassing both Spotify and Apple; it also maintained prominence as the number one streaming platform, capturing over 10% of TV watch time. YouTube’s increasing role in sports viewership was a big driver of this growth, with watch time growing by 30% YoY. During the Olympics alone, it amassed 40 billion minutes of watch time, nearly half coming from TV screens.
While YouTube is still the go-to for highlights and analysis, it’s now looking to expand its live-stream coverage beyond NFL Sunday Ticket with a new pilot, Watch With. The new pilot, akin to Monday Night Football’s Manningcast, lets viewers experience live games and events on YouTube, with creators delivering real-time commentary, insights, and reactions.
While there are limited details on the pilot so far, we’re keeping a close eye on this pilot for a couple of reasons. First, we expect it to be one of several 2025 announcements from YouTube focused on sports and live-streaming. Second, though no ad opportunities have been revealed yet, YouTube’s creator-driven platform and the growing trend of younger viewers turning to social media for sports content could be the foundation for exciting, unique opportunities for brands to engage with live sports fans through sponsorships or paid placements. | WSJ, Nielsen, TubeFilter, YouTube Blog
Search
Right before the Christmas holiday, Google shared a summary of its proposed remedies to the DOJ’s online search distribution monopoly case. The company was clear that it intends to appeal the Court’s decision, but is first required to file proposed remedies. Google’s message has been consistent: “People don’t use Google because they have to — they use it because they want to,” according to Lee-Anne Mulholland, VP of Regulatory Affairs at Google.
In its blog post, Google also called out the rapidly changing Search landscape, noting increased competition from AI-powered search services, such as ChatGPT Search and Perplexity. Additionally, Google emphasized how the DOJ’s current proposal would “harm American consumers and undermine America’s global technology leadership at a critical juncture,” by requiring Google to share people’s private search queries, and by restricting innovation.
Google’s proposed remedies included the following primary themes:
- Browser agreement flexibility: provide greater flexibility to browser companies (ex: Apple, Mozilla) by allowing for multiple default agreements across different platforms and browsing modes, and the ability to change their default search provider at least every 12 months.
- Android contract flexibility: greater flexibility for device makers to preload multiple search engines (ex: Google, Bing) and any Google app independently of preloading Search or Chrome.
- AI competition safeguards: Android partners can license Google Play, Search, and/or Chrome without also licensing Google’s Gemini Assistant mobile app, essentially meaning Google cannot use its business agreements to block or discourage competition from other AI chatbot providers. This is to “address the potential for generative AI chatbots to become substitutes for general search engines,” per the full proposed final judgement case filing from December 20, 2024.
The hearing is expected to begin in late April 2025. | Google blog, Proposed final judgement case filing, Search Engine Land
Consumer Economy
1. The Black Friday-Cyber Monday shopping period, which was up 3.5% YoY, proved to be a reliable leading indicator for the holiday season – American shoppers increased their total outlays from Nov 1st – Dec 24th by 3.8% YoY, with restaurant spending up over 6%, online sales up over 6%, and in-store sales up almost 3%.
The overall picture is composed of a bifurcation across income brackets, with most of the gains driven by households making over $100k. The chief executive of a pen manufacturer said, “We started to notice this trend where there was a real bifurcation in the market between the $50,000-and-below consumer in the U.S. market and the $100,000-and-above consumer,” a sentiment that was echoed by observers across numerous industries.
The overall increase in consumer spending is underpinned by strong, broad-based economic growth in the US: GDP growth for 3Q was revised upward to an annualized 3.1%, reflecting an acceleration from 2Q; however, the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP estimator suggests 2.4% growth for 4Q at the time of writing.
This projected decline in economic growth is mirrored by a sudden downturn in consumer confidence, the first decline in three months.
According to the survey’s authors, the drivers of the decline are “politics and tariffs.” | WSJ, Bloomberg, Bloomberg
2. At its last rate-setting meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to a target range of 4.25% – 4.5%. This was the third reduction in the Fed’s loosening cycle, following a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point cut in November. In its announcement, Fed officials indicated a slower future pace of reductions, triggering significant equity market declines.
A couple of days following the interest rate announcement, a fresh print of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was released which showed PCE inflation slowed in November, rising 0.1% over the prior month and 2.8% over the prior year. The monthly advance was the slowest since May of this year.
A private-sector economist observed, “Overall, this is just what the Fed ordered — US economic strength continues, but with muted price pressures.”
The Fed’s success in combatting inflation has come without damaging the labor market, which is a remarkable achievement. At the end of December, initial unemployment claims fell to an eight-month low, while continuing unemployment claims fell to a three-month low:
The fly in the labor market ointment is that recurring applications are set to post a second straight year of increases, which is historically rare outside of recessions. | CNBC, Bloomberg, Bloomberg
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